Does climate change induce desertification in Gujarat?

Abstract

Land degradation refers to the decline in economic and biological productivity of land caused by climatic variability and human activities, leading to disrupted ecosystem functions. Gujarat, located in the dry and semi-arid region of India, is particularly vulnerable to these processes due to its dependence on monsoon precipitation, which is characterized by significant variability. This study examines rainfall data from the India Meteorological Department for the period 2000 to 2020 and satellite-derived Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values for 2001, 2011, and 2021 to assess spatial and temporal trends in desertification across selected districts. The analysis indicates an overall increasing trend in monsoonal rainfall during the two decades, but this increase is unevenly distributed, with certain districts experiencing more pronounced variability. Remote sensing data reveal a complex pattern of vegetation dynamics. Districts like Porbandar and Bharuch show improvements in NDVI values, suggesting enhanced vegetation cover and potential recovery from land degradation. Conversely, Vadodara exhibits declining NDVI trends, highlighting escalating risks of desertification, likely driven by intensified anthropogenic pressures such as industrialization and deforestation. This research highlights the critical interplay between climatic factors and land use changes in shaping regional ecological health. The findings underscore the need for proactive and region-specific land management strategies to mitigate desertification. With the help of reliance on robust satellite-based monitoring and high-resolution climatic data, this study provides a replicable framework for understanding and combating land degradation in similar vulnerable districts.