Seismic fragility and financial loss analysis of building clusters on the basis of probability and empirical estimation strategies

Abstract

The effects of earthquakes of multiple intensities on engineering buildings directly cause many structural failures, economic losses, and displacement. Furthermore, various building structures exhibit diverse seismic vulnerabilities and risk characteristics under different temperatures. Structural earthquake vulnerability and loss of typical engineering structures under multiple temperatures and low- to medium-seismic intensities have been proposed to study seismic vulnerability and loss estimation models considering probabilistic seismic risk and temperature effects. Temperature models were established for nine typical cities (earthquake-prone regions) within Yunnan Province. An innovative model for estimating the number of outdoor shelters considering the seismic fragility of buildings and the dominance of temperature fields has been proposed. Using empirical and mathematical statistical techniques, the developed model was validated and analysed via four types (adobe and wooden (AW) buildings, brick and timber (BT) structures, multistory masonry (MM) structures, and reinforced concrete frame (RCF) structures) of structural survey data (31,356.347 m²) from two destructive earthquakes (Dayao-N and Dayao-L) that occurred in Dayao County, Yunnan Province, China, on July 21, 2003, and October 16, 2003. Using probability risk and nonlinear regression methods, seismic loss and risk index curves and economic loss distributions were established for four building clusters considering empirical and temperature effects. Using the method of cumulative estimation of failure and loss, seismic loss and risk models were generated. A statistical analysis of the distribution of the number of outdoor shelters considering a dataset of actual damage to four types of buildings under different temperatures and earthquake intensities was performed. An updated seismic risk membership index curve was generated for four buildings on the basis of temperature and moderate- to low-intensity measures.