Climate change-driven vulnerability of Mexico regions toward food insecurity

Abstract

Climate change is drastically affecting agriculture, markets, and infrastructure, putting global food security at risk. Mexico faces major challenges, with a significant portion of its population experiencing moderate to severe food insecurity. This study presents a novel methodology for assessing food security in Mexico that incorporates the impacts of climate change. The methodology combines a thorough analysis of four dimensions: availability, access, use, and stability. It includes 48 variables at the municipality level and establishes a baseline scenario with data from 2020. It projects variables to two future scenarios: one that follows the observed trend of the last 20 years and another that includes climate change. Principal component analysis and Dalenius and Hodges stratification are used to classify municipalities into very high, high, medium, and low food security categories. Low food security indicates municipalities with poor conditions on most dimensions, while very high food security indicates those with optimal conditions on all variables. Food security problems are defined as municipalities with medium or low food security. Results indicate that, in the baseline scenario, 45% of municipalities face food security problems, including issues such as insufficient agricultural productivity and limited access to food due to economic and/or infrastructural constraints, as well as health-related problems and lack of basic services. Among municipalities, 15% were classified as having low food security. Future projections suggest an increase in food insecurity by 6% and 7% in the trend and climate change scenarios, respectively, reaching 51% and 52% of municipalities. The greatest impact of food insecurity is in the southern and mountainous central-northern regions, with 12 areas identified as most vulnerable. These areas should be prioritized for mitigating climate change impacts on food security. The recommended indicators can help in monitoring climate-related risks and guide effective policy responses.