Lingjun Lu, Xu Han, Junjun Zhu, Ligang Lv, Xueyan Sui
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引用次数: 0
Abstract
The assessment of land use conflicts is essential for promoting sustainable regional development. Exacerbated by climate change, global land use conflicts require dynamic and scenario-specific predictions that remain notably underexplored. The Nanjing Metropolitan Area in China serves as a representative case in this study. An evaluation model for land use conflicts was developed from a landscape pattern perspective to examine the spatiotemporal variations in such conflicts between 2000 and 2020. The driving factors of these conflicts were analyzed using Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) and a geodetector model. Furthermore, to simulate the spatiotemporal evolution of land use conflicts from 2030 to 2050, this study employed the advanced Patch-Generated Land Use Simulation (PLUS) model under three distinct climate scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5. The findings reveal the following: (1) Between 2000 and 2020, land use conflicts were more intense in the north and less intense in the south, with the area of extreme conflict decreasing by 11.04%, reflecting an overall alleviation. (2) The basic pattern of land use conflicts was initially shaped by natural driving factors, with precipitation and evapotranspiration showing the highest correlation coefficients of 0.498 and 0.821, respectively, exerting a significant positive impact on the spatiotemporal evolution of these conflicts. Over time, the influence of socioeconomic factors, location factors, and national policies on land use conflicts has gradually increased. (3) By 2050, under the SSP1-2.6 scenario, extreme conflict is projected to decrease to just 1.92%, with significant mitigation. In the SSP2-4.5 scenario, conflicts will remain moderate, whereas in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, moderate conflicts will increase to 38.4%, indicating worsening tensions. The intensifying impacts of climate change and human activity are expected to exacerbate future land use conflicts. This study addresses the gap in research combining land use conflicts with climate scenarios and provides recommendations for optimizing land resource allocation in regions such as the Nanjing Metropolitan Area, alleviating human–environment tensions, and promoting sustainable land use.
期刊介绍：
Description
The journal has an applied focus: it actively promotes the importance of geographical research in real world settings
It is policy-relevant: it seeks both a readership and contributions from practitioners as well as academics
The substantive foundation is spatial analysis: the use of quantitative techniques to identify patterns and processes within geographic environments
The combination of these points, which are fully reflected in the naming of the journal, establishes a unique position in the marketplace.
RationaleA geographical perspective has always been crucial to the understanding of the social and physical organisation of the world around us. The techniques of spatial analysis provide a powerful means for the assembly and interpretation of evidence, and thus to address critical questions about issues such as crime and deprivation, immigration and demographic restructuring, retailing activity and employment change, resource management and environmental improvement. Many of these issues are equally important to academic research as they are to policy makers and Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy aims to close the gap between these two perspectives by providing a forum for discussion of applied research in a range of different contexts
Topical and interdisciplinaryIncreasingly government organisations, administrative agencies and private businesses are requiring research to support their ‘evidence-based’ strategies or policies. Geographical location is critical in much of this work which extends across a wide range of disciplines including demography, actuarial sciences, statistics, public sector planning, business planning, economics, epidemiology, sociology, social policy, health research, environmental management.
FocusApplied Spatial Analysis and Policy will draw on applied research from diverse problem domains, such as transport, policing, education, health, environment and leisure, in different international contexts. The journal will therefore provide insights into the variations in phenomena that exist across space, it will provide evidence for comparative policy analysis between domains and between locations, and stimulate ideas about the translation of spatial analysis methods and techniques across varied policy contexts. It is essential to know how to measure, monitor and understand spatial distributions, many of which have implications for those with responsibility to plan and enhance the society and the environment in which we all exist.
Readership and Editorial BoardAs a journal focused on applications of methods of spatial analysis, Applied Spatial Analysis and Policy will be of interest to scholars and students in a wide range of academic fields, to practitioners in government and administrative agencies and to consultants in private sector organisations. The Editorial Board reflects the international and multidisciplinary nature of the journal.
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