Modeling the impact of price and usage efficiency on domestic water demand in Saudi Arabia

IF 3.8 3区经济学 Q3 ENERGY & FUELS

Utilities Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-23 DOI:10.1016/j.jup.2025.101971

Muhammad Javid

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is twofold. First, it seeks to identify the key drivers of domestic water demand in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) by estimating two sets of water demand models covering 1994 to 2023. The first model relates water demand to water price, income, and population, while the second model adds water use efficiency (WUE) as an additional explanatory variable to assess its impact on future domestic water demand. Second, the paper projects Saudi Arabia's domestic water demand through 2050 based on the estimates derived from both models. The estimation results show that all coefficients are significant and align with theoretical expectations. The estimated price elasticities of water demand are −0.17 and −0.20 for Models 1 and 2, respectively. The estimated elasticity of WUE is −0.39. Projections based on Model 1 suggest that total domestic water demand will rise from 3.6 billion m³/year in 2023 to approximately 8.14 billion m³/year by 2050. The results indicate that domestic water demand in KSA could be reduced by 32 % through improvements in WUE and by 4 % through water price reforms. These findings underscore the significant role of WUE enhancements in managing domestic water demand in KSA.

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沙特阿拉伯用水价格和用水效率对生活用水需求的影响建模

本文的主要目的有两个。首先，通过估算1994年至2023年的两套水需求模型，试图确定沙特阿拉伯王国（KSA）生活用水需求的主要驱动因素。第一个模型将水需求与水价、收入和人口联系起来，而第二个模型将水利用效率（WUE）作为额外的解释变量来评估其对未来生活用水需求的影响。其次，论文根据两个模型得出的估计，预测了沙特阿拉伯到2050年的国内用水需求。估计结果表明，各系数均显著，符合理论预期。模型1和模型2的水需求价格弹性分别为- 0.17和- 0.20。估计WUE的弹性为- 0.39。基于模型1的预测表明，到2050年，生活用水总需求将从2023年的36亿立方米/年增加到约81.4亿立方米/年。结果表明，通过提高用水效率，KSA的生活用水需求可减少32%，通过水价改革可减少4%。这些发现强调了用水效率在管理沙特阿拉伯生活用水需求方面的重要作用。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Utilities Policy ENERGY & FUELS-ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

CiteScore

6.80

自引率

10.00%

发文量

审稿时长

66 days

期刊介绍： Utilities Policy is deliberately international, interdisciplinary, and intersectoral. Articles address utility trends and issues in both developed and developing economies. Authors and reviewers come from various disciplines, including economics, political science, sociology, law, finance, accounting, management, and engineering. Areas of focus include the utility and network industries providing essential electricity, natural gas, water and wastewater, solid waste, communications, broadband, postal, and public transportation services. Utilities Policy invites submissions that apply various quantitative and qualitative methods. Contributions are welcome from both established and emerging scholars as well as accomplished practitioners. Interdisciplinary, comparative, and applied works are encouraged. Submissions to the journal should have a clear focus on governance, performance, and/or analysis of public utilities with an aim toward informing the policymaking process and providing recommendations as appropriate. Relevant topics and issues include but are not limited to industry structures and ownership, market design and dynamics, economic development, resource planning, system modeling, accounting and finance, infrastructure investment, supply and demand efficiency, strategic management and productivity, network operations and integration, supply chains, adaptation and flexibility, service-quality standards, benchmarking and metrics, benefit-cost analysis, behavior and incentives, pricing and demand response, economic and environmental regulation, regulatory performance and impact, restructuring and deregulation, and policy institutions.