Witch trials and wages in early-modern Europe: A state-space reconstruction study

Abstract

Religious oppression is often jointly present with worse economic outcomes, in both current and historical contexts. Direction of influence has been unclear. In this study, I used a 550-year dataset to examine dynamic linkages between real wages and the frequency of witch trials in early-modern Europe. To investigate causal effects rather than simply prospective probabilistic connections, I used a state-space reconstruction approach from the natural sciences. Results confirmed causation in both directions. Negative effects of more witch trials on average incomes were significantly stronger than the inverse negative flow. Religious oppression, then, could be more of a cause of worse economic conditions than an outcome. If findings apply to other contexts, they may shed new light on potential oppression-poverty spirals.