Influence of Biological Maturation on the Career Trajectory of Football Players: Does It Predict Elite Success?

Abstract

Background: Early-maturing players tend to have physical advantages during formative stages, but it remains unclear whether these advantages translate into long-term professional success. This study examines how biological maturation influences participation and career trajectories in youth football. Methods: Anthropometric and competitive data were collected from 47 players (13.53 ± 1.08 years) in a top-tier academy during the 2010-2011 season. The maturation status was assessed using the Tanner-Whitehouse II RUS method, and the career outcomes were tracked in 2024-2025. Results: Early-maturing players showed higher anthropometric values and greater participation. However, late maturers were more likely to reach professional football (p = 0.003), with all players competing in the top five European leagues belonging to the late-maturing group. Conclusions: Early maturation does not guarantee professional success. Strategies such as bio-banding and personalized training can reduce biases and support talent development, highlighting the need for a more holistic approach to player evaluation.