Unveiling uncertainties in soil organic carbon modeling: the critical role of climate response functions

Abstract

Accurately simulating soil organic carbon (SOC) dynamics is essential for carbon-related assessments. Process-oriented SOC models employ temperature (f(T)) and soil moisture (f(W)) response functions derived from specific conditions to simulate SOC responses to climate change, yet are widely applied in regional and global-scale studies. How these functions affect regional SOC simulations remains unclear. We evaluated the impacts of ten f(T) and nine f(W) functions using the Double Layer Carbon Model (DLCM) in the Qinling Mountains from 1982 to 2018. After calibration by Particle Swarm Optimization, DLCM estimated initial SOC with high spatial consistency (R² > 0.9) and less than 1 % bias against machine learning based baseline maps over 85 % of the area. Different functions led to large SOC variations (up to 37 % in topsoil and 30 % in subsoil). Their combined impacts vary significantly under climate fluctuations, highlighting the need for accurate functions to improve SOC prediction in a changing climate.