Monetary policy in the euro area: Active or passive?

IF 2.8 2区 经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS
Alice Albonico , Guido Ascari , Qazi Haque
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

We estimate a medium-scale DSGE model for the euro area from the introduction of the euro to mid-2023, testing for indeterminacy in monetary policy. While the indeterminacy model occasionally fits the data better, this result is fragile and sensitive to technical assumptions, particularly the correlation between sunspot and fundamental shocks. Additionally, inflation responses under indeterminacy contradict standard economic theory and empirical evidence. In contrast, the determinacy model aligns with both theory and empirical data, particularly in response to monetary policy shocks. Our findings support the view that monetary policy in the euro area has been sufficiently active to stabilize inflation and prevent self-fulfilling inflationary expectations.
欧元区货币政策:主动还是被动?
我们估计了欧元区从引入欧元到2023年中期的中等规模DSGE模型,以测试货币政策的不确定性。虽然不确定性模型偶尔会更好地拟合数据,但这个结果是脆弱的,对技术假设很敏感,特别是太阳黑子和基本冲击之间的相关性。此外,不确定性下的通货膨胀反应与标准经济理论和经验证据相矛盾。相比之下,确定性模型与理论和经验数据一致,特别是在应对货币政策冲击方面。我们的研究结果支持这样一种观点,即欧元区的货币政策在稳定通胀和防止自我实现的通胀预期方面已经足够积极。
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来源期刊
CiteScore
4.70
自引率
3.60%
发文量
170
期刊介绍: The European Economic Review (EER) started publishing in 1969 as the first research journal specifically aiming to contribute to the development and application of economics as a science in Europe. As a broad-based professional and international journal, the EER welcomes submissions of applied and theoretical research papers in all fields of economics. The aim of the EER is to contribute to the development of the science of economics and its applications, as well as to improve communication between academic researchers, teachers and policy makers across the European continent and beyond.
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