Low-carbon policy simulation for offshore wind power development in China's net-zero power sector

Abstract

To mitigate climate change, offshore wind power, as a crucial component of clean energy in coastal regions, has been receiving significant attention in China. However, due to its still-high costs, its development relies heavily on policy support. we employ a sophisticated power system capacity expansion and operational optimization model to simulate the development pathways of China's offshore wind power under different policy scenarios and explore the essential policy measures needed to facilitate its growth within the framework of the nation's net-zero emissions target for the power sector. The results of our study were striking. We discover that driven by an escalating carbon pricing mechanism, China's offshore wind power is set for sustained long-term growth, with its scale nearly tripling by 2050. Moreover, when complemented by an appropriate combination of green certificate and green credit policies, offshore wind power is expected to achieve further short-term growth. By 2050, its installed capacity is projected at 466 GW, and generation output at 1153 TWh, accounting for 7 % of total installed capacity and 8 % of total electricity generation in the country, respectively. Drawing on these findings, we recommend that policymakers implement a two-stage support policy: in the short term, they should introduce a blended green certificate and green credit policy. In the long term, they should foster the growth of offshore wind power by progressively increase carbon prices.