Estimated Current and Future Congenital Rubella Syndrome Incidence with and Without Rubella Vaccine Introduction - 19 Countries, 2019-2055.

Abstract

Rubella is a leading cause of vaccine-preventable birth defects. Rubella virus infection during early pregnancy can result in miscarriage, fetal death, stillbirth, or a constellation of birth defects known as congenital rubella syndrome (CRS). This report describes current and future estimated CRS incidence in countries that have not yet introduced rubella-containing vaccine (RCV) into their national childhood immunization schedules and the estimated effect of implementing a recent recommendation to introduce RCV into these programs even if population coverage with measles-containing vaccine is <80%. During 2000-2022, the number of countries that introduced RCV increased from 99 (52%) of 191 in 2000 to 175 (90%) of 194 in 2022. By the end of 2023, 19 lower- and middle-income countries had not yet introduced RCV. In 2019, an estimated 24,000 CRS cases occurred in these countries, representing 75% of the estimated 32,000 cases worldwide. In a modeling study estimating the effect of RCV introduction in these countries during 2025-2055, an estimated 1.03 million CRS cases are projected to occur without RCV. In contrast, fewer than 60,000 cases are estimated if RCV is introduced with catch-up and follow-up supplementary immunization activities, averting more than an estimated 986,000 CRS cases over 30 years. Based in part on these estimates, in September 2024, the World Health Organization Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on Immunization recommended removing the ≥80% coverage threshold and instituting universal RCV introduction in these countries. RCV introduction in these 19 countries during 2025-2030 could rapidly accelerate progress toward rubella and CRS elimination worldwide.