Potential reduction of greenhouse gas emissions through dietary structure changes and guidelines for environmental sustainability

Abstract

Changes in residents' dietary patterns significantly influence both dietary consumption and greenhouse gases (GHGs) emissions. Based on IPCC guidelines and input-output analysis, this study assess the spatiotemporal characteristics of GHGs emissions across different age groups, genders, and urban-rural regions. Furthermore, we simulate the potential for GHGs emissions reduction under five food substitution scenarios by 2050. The results indicate that the 15–64 age group emits approximately four times more GHGs emissions than other age groups, while urban areas emit about twice as much as rural areas. Among the scenarios, adopting a Mediterranean dietary structure to fill protein gaps leads to the lowest GHGs emissions, with an estimated reduction of 533.89 Mt. CO₂eq by 2050. These findings suggest that adjusting sustainable dietary structures should be tailored to specific contexts, with a focus on substituting meat consumption with high-protein, low-carbon alternatives. This study provides insights for optimizing dietary structures and formulating policies aimed at reducing GHGs emissions associated with dietary consumption.