Long-run effects of super low fertility on housing markets

IF 4.2 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Economic Modelling Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI:10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107125

Jangyoun Lee , Hyunduk Suh

引用次数: 0

Abstract

The total fertility rate (TFR) in Korea fell to the historically lowest value of 0.72, reaching the state of super low fertility, also similarly observed in other East Asian countries. We quantitatively assess future implications of super low fertility on housing markets using an overlapping generations (OLG) general equilibrium model, which features housing markets and demographic transitions. The results predict that while the current housing boom will continue in the near future, real housing prices will eventually decline after 2035 because of low fertility. Among government policies, increasing the housing supply or the birth rate can mitigate this long-term housing boom-bust cycle and is welfare-improving for currently young generations. Meanwhile, stricter caps on the LTV ratio are ineffective in stabilizing the housing cycle and welfare-reducing except for older generations.

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超低生育率对房地产市场的长期影响

韩国的总生育率（TFR）下降到历史最低值0.72，进入了与东亚其他国家类似的“超低生育率”状态。我们使用重叠代（OLG）一般均衡模型定量评估了超低生育率对住房市场的未来影响，该模型以住房市场和人口转变为特征。结果预测，虽然目前的住宅繁荣将在近期内持续，但由于低生育率，实际房价将在2035年之后最终下降。在政府的政策中，增加住房供应或出生率可以缓解这种长期的住房繁荣-萧条周期，并改善目前年轻一代的福利。另外，严格限制LTV比率对于稳定住宅周期和减少福利，除了老一代之外，没有任何效果。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Economic Modelling ECONOMICS-

CiteScore

8.00

自引率

10.60%

发文量

295

期刊介绍： Economic Modelling fills a major gap in the economics literature, providing a single source of both theoretical and applied papers on economic modelling. The journal prime objective is to provide an international review of the state-of-the-art in economic modelling. Economic Modelling publishes the complete versions of many large-scale models of industrially advanced economies which have been developed for policy analysis. Examples are the Bank of England Model and the US Federal Reserve Board Model which had hitherto been unpublished. As individual models are revised and updated, the journal publishes subsequent papers dealing with these revisions, so keeping its readers as up to date as possible.