Investigation of distinct and joint contributions of human factors and operational conditions to different types of maritime accidents

IF 4.8 2区环境科学与生态学 Q1 OCEANOGRAPHY

Ocean & Coastal Management Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2025.107750

Laihao Ma , Xiaoxue Ma , Ruiwen Zhang , Qiaoling Du

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

The contributions of human factors and operational conditions to different types of maritime accidents are distinct yet interconnected. The present study aims to examine the distinct and joint contributions of human factors and operational conditions to six types of maritime accidents using a data-driven approach. By integrating the improved Human Factors Analysis and Classification System (HFACS), association rule mining (ARM), and Bayesian Network (BN), a data-driven BN model is developed based on an analysis of 594 maritime accidents that occurred between 2014 and 2023. With the developed BN model, a comprehensive BN analysis including correlation analysis, sensitivity analysis, and scenario simulation is conducted. The individual contribution of human factors and operational conditions to different types of maritime accidents is determined and ranked. Furthermore, the joint contributions of human factors in the presence of different operational conditions are investigated and quantified. The developed BN model provides a valuable tool for predicting accident types, aiding maritime stakeholders in implementing targeted safety measures and enhancing the overall safety of maritime operations.

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人为因素和操作条件对不同类型海上事故的独特和共同贡献的调查

人为因素和操作条件对不同类型海上事故的影响是不同的，但又相互关联。本研究旨在使用数据驱动的方法检查人为因素和操作条件对六种类型海上事故的独特和共同贡献。通过整合改进的人为因素分析与分类系统（HFACS）、关联规则挖掘（ARM）和贝叶斯网络（BN），基于对2014年至2023年间发生的594起海上事故的分析，开发了数据驱动的贝叶斯网络模型。利用所建立的BN模型，进行了全面的BN分析，包括相关性分析、敏感性分析和情景模拟。确定了人为因素和操作条件对不同类型海上事故的个别贡献，并对其进行了排序。此外，在不同的操作条件下，人为因素的共同贡献进行了研究和量化。开发的网络安全模型为预测事故类型、协助海事利益相关者实施有针对性的安全措施和提高海上作业的整体安全提供了宝贵的工具。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ocean & Coastal Management 环境科学-海洋学

CiteScore

8.50

自引率

15.20%

发文量

321

审稿时长

60 days

期刊介绍： Ocean & Coastal Management is the leading international journal dedicated to the study of all aspects of ocean and coastal management from the global to local levels. We publish rigorously peer-reviewed manuscripts from all disciplines, and inter-/trans-disciplinary and co-designed research, but all submissions must make clear the relevance to management and/or governance issues relevant to the sustainable development and conservation of oceans and coasts. Comparative studies (from sub-national to trans-national cases, and other management / policy arenas) are encouraged, as are studies that critically assess current management practices and governance approaches. Submissions involving robust analysis, development of theory, and improvement of management practice are especially welcome.