A Robust Decision-Making approach to evaluating state support for nuclear programmes under uncertainty: A UK case study

IF 9.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114653

J. Mangin , M. Bluck , G. Darch , D. Roberts , S. Brown , M. Workman

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Several western countries have announced ambitious nuclear energy programmes to boost energy security and support decarbonisation targets following the 2022 energy crisis. However, persistent delays, cost overruns, and volatile financial conditions hinder orthodox strategic planning and deter investment in a sector that has stagnated for two decades.

To accommodate for the deep uncertainty, this study employs a Robust-Decision Making (RDM) approach to develop financing policy recommendations to meet the United Kingdom (UK) government’s nuclear ambitions for 2050. Different revenue, financing, and government support schemes are tested via the RDM framework across wide-ranging plausible future conditions. Three deployment scenarios that meet the government’s target build upon current UK construction and planned initiatives, incorporating GenIII+ light-water technologies with varying amounts of large-scale reactors (LR) and Small Modular Reactors (SMR). Findings indicate that the financial and revenue structure of nuclear programmes, particularly the adoption of regulated models over market-aligned ones, helps manage financial risks by addressing uncertainties inherent in nuclear power deployment. This could in turn facilitate investment in the sector and restrict the risk costs falling on consumers. Direct government backing is discussed, and the fiscal cost of state majority investment is estimated and set against broader public energy funding.

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不确定性下评估国家对核项目支持的稳健决策方法：一个英国案例研究

几个西方国家宣布了雄心勃勃的核能计划，以加强能源安全，并在2022年能源危机后支持脱碳目标。然而，持续的延误、成本超支和不稳定的财务状况阻碍了传统的战略规划，并阻碍了对这个已经停滞了20年的行业的投资。为了适应深刻的不确定性，本研究采用稳健决策（RDM）方法来制定融资政策建议，以满足英国政府2050年的核野心。不同的收入、融资和政府支持计划通过RDM框架在广泛可行的未来条件下进行测试。根据英国目前的建设和计划计划，三种部署方案满足政府的目标，将GenIII+轻水技术与不同数量的大型反应堆（LR）和小型模块化反应堆（SMR）相结合。研究结果表明，核电项目的财务和收入结构，特别是采用受监管的模式而不是与市场一致的模式，有助于通过解决核电部署中固有的不确定性来管理财务风险。这可能反过来促进对该行业的投资，并限制消费者承担的风险成本。讨论了政府的直接支持，估算了国家多数投资的财政成本，并将其与更广泛的公共能源融资相比较。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy Policy 管理科学-环境科学

CiteScore

17.30

自引率

5.60%

发文量

540

审稿时长

7.9 months

期刊介绍： Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contribute to climate change mitigation. The attributes of energy policy may include legislation, international treaties, incentives to investment, guidelines for energy conservation, taxation and other public policy techniques. Energy policy is closely related to climate change policy because totalled worldwide the energy sector emits more greenhouse gas than other sectors.