[Spatio-temporal Evolution Patterns of Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Jiangsu Province Based on Land Use and Cover Change].

Abstract

Land use and cover change in a region is the main cause of carbon storage changes in terrestrial ecosystems. Exploring the carbon storage based on land use/cover types and predicting the impact of future changes can provide reasonable foundation for a territory development plan under the "dual carbon" goal. Since this century, under the joint influence of human social activities and natural factors, the land use situation in Jiangsu Province has undergone significant changes, and the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems has correspondingly undergone obvious changes. This study explores the situation of land use/cover data in Jiangsu Province from 1995 to 2020 based on the coupled FLUS-InVEST model. Additionally, it predicts the spatiotemporal distribution of land use/cover and carbon storage in Jiangsu Province in 2030 under multiple scenarios. The results indicate that： ① The period from 1995 to 2020 was a period of severe carbon storage loss, with a total reduction of 36.69 Tg. ② In 2030, under the economic development scenario and natural development scenario, the carbon storage shows a downward trend. The predicted future carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario increases, and the predicted carbon storage under the ecological protection scenario is the highest, with an increase of 18.57 Tg compared to that in 2020. ③ In 2030, the carbon storage in Jiangsu Province under multiple scenarios have similarities in spatial distribution. High value areas of carbon reserves were clustered in the northern, northeastern, and eastern regions of Jiangsu Province, whereas low value areas were clustered in economically developed areas.