[Spatial and Temporal Evolution of Crop Cultivation Carbon Footprint in the Loess Plateau： Driving Force and Trend Prediction].

Abstract

Reducing the carbon footprint of crop cultivation is practically important in realizing the goal of "double carbon" and sustainable development of agriculture. However, established studies have paid insufficient attention to the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the factors influencing the carbon footprint of crop cultivation as well as to the future trends of the carbon footprint. The Loess Plateau, as an important ecological barrier in China as well as a typical region for dryland agriculture, has been facing a large carbon footprint pressure on crop production activities in recent years. In view of this, this study measures the carbon footprint of crop cultivation in the Loess Plateau based on the Life Cycle Assessment （LCA） method, captures the evolutionary pattern of the carbon footprint with the help of spatial analysis, identifies the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the carbon footprint influencing factors by using the GTWR model, and predicts the future trend of the carbon footprint. The study found that： ① The carbon footprint of crop cultivation in general showed an upward and then a downward trend and was characterized by obvious spatial heterogeneity, with high carbon footprints in the cities of Yulin, Weinan, Yuncheng, and Bayannur and low carbon footprints in the eight cities such as Xining and Wuhai. Over time, the carbon footprint gradually evolved from isolated individuals to regional linkages. ② The spatio-temporal patterns and dynamics of the carbon footprint of crop cultivation were influenced by the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of multiple factors. The level of financial support for agriculture, urbanization, and agricultural mechanization could inhibit the carbon footprint of crop cultivation in most cities. The impacts of cropland management scale and fertilizer input intensity were predominantly positive, while raising the replanting index and increasing the effective irrigated areas will exacerbate the carbon footprint of crop cultivation. ③ It was predicted that by 2030, the carbon footprint of crop cultivation in the study area will decrease to 4.271 million hm², with an increasing trend in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia； a significant decrease in Shaanxi and Gansu； and a basically unchanged trend in Ningxia, Qinghai, and Henan. Based on the results of the study, targeted policy recommendations are proposed to reduce the carbon footprint of crop cultivation in the Loess Plateau, and the conclusions and recommendations of the study are useful for the green and low-carbon development of crop cultivation activities in other arid areas.