Exploring spatiotemporal dynamics and climatic effects on dengue in Amazonas, Peru during 2000–2023

IF 2.1 3区医学 Q2 PARASITOLOGY

Acta tropica Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI:10.1016/j.actatropica.2025.107659

Fátima Burgos , Milagros Saavedra-Samillán , Pershing Bustamante-Chauca , Victor Vera-Ponce , Carmen Gutierrez , Jesús Rascón , Rafael Tapia-Limonchi , Stella M. Chenet

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Abstract

Peru experienced its most severe dengue outbreak on record, with the Amazonas region reporting 3502 dengue cases in 2022. This study aimed to examine the distribution of dengue cases across Amazonas from 2000 to 2023, while exploring the influence of climate factors. Monthly incidence was aggregated into four consecutive six-year blocks to identify incidence trends, and space-time scan statistics identified high and low-risk clusters. Spearman correlations with distributed lags (0 – 2 months) evaluated the association between incidence and climatic data from NASA-POWER, stratified by season. Until 2005, transmission was restricted to Bagua and Utcubamba provinces. A major increase in cases from 2008 to 2011 was recorded in the endemic provinces of Condorcanqui, Bagua, and Utcubamba forming a high-risk cluster in the latter two (LLR = 287.88, RR = 3.79). After a decrease during 2012–2017, incidence resurged creating a Bagua mega-cluster (LLR = 1112.28, RR = 3.20) and expanding to Jazán and Balsas districts, with the latter characterized by lower temperatures compared to endemic areas. Significant correlations were found between climatic variables and incidence. Specifically, minimum temperature significantly influenced dengue dynamics and expansion into Balsas (rho = 0.23, P = 0.03), with a two-month lag during the wet season. These findings underscore the importance of climate monitoring in guiding public health interventions. However, a comprehensive approach that considers environmental and behavioral factors, tailored to the specific conditions of each province, is essential for effective control of future outbreaks.

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2000-2023年秘鲁亚马孙地区登革热时空动态及气候影响研究

秘鲁经历了有记录以来最严重的登革热疫情，亚马逊地区在2022年报告了3502例登革热病例。本研究旨在研究2000 - 2023年亚马孙地区登革热病例的分布情况，同时探讨气候因素的影响。每月发病率汇总为连续4个6年块，以确定发病率趋势，并通过时空扫描统计确定高风险和低风险群集。分布滞后（0 - 2个月）的Spearman相关性评估了发病率与NASA-POWER按季节分层的气候数据之间的关系。直到2005年，传播仅限于巴瓜和乌库班巴省。2008 - 2011年，孔多坎基、巴瓜和乌库班巴流行省的病例显著增加，后两个省形成了高风险聚集群（LLR = 287.88,RR = 3.79）。在2012-2017年下降之后，发病率重新出现，形成了八卦大集群（LLR = 1112.28,RR = 3.20），并扩展到Jazán和巴尔萨斯地区，后者的特点是与流行地区相比温度更低。气候变量与发病率之间存在显著相关。具体而言，最低温度显著影响登革热的动态和向巴尔萨斯岛的扩展（rho = 0.23,P = 0.03），在雨季有2个月的滞后。这些发现强调了气候监测在指导公共卫生干预方面的重要性。然而，考虑到环境和行为因素并根据每个省的具体情况量身定制的综合方法对于有效控制未来的疫情至关重要。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Acta tropica 医学-寄生虫学

CiteScore

5.40

自引率

11.10%

发文量

383

审稿时长

37 days

期刊介绍： Acta Tropica, is an international journal on infectious diseases that covers public health sciences and biomedical research with particular emphasis on topics relevant to human and animal health in the tropics and the subtropics.