The effects of adaptation on the phenological changes of winter wheat in the warmer North China Plain

Abstract

Crop phenology is greatly affected by global warming, but the actual changes in crop phenology are the interaction of warming and human interventions, while few investigations have been carried on from the multifactor viewpoint. In the paper, the observation data on winter wheat growth at 45 agrometeorological sites over the North China Plain in 1981–2010 were used to analyze the effects of adaptation measures on the changes in the phenology of winter wheat. The results demonstrated that the dates of sowing and the beginning of winter dormancy had been delayed; in contrast, the dates for green-up and maturity had been advanced. Detailed analysis showed that the length from green-up to anthesis was shortened, whereas the length from anthesis to maturity was prolonged. The adaptation measures played an important role in speeding up the vegetative growth from green-up to anthesis and prolonging the reproductive growth from anthesis to maturity to maximize the increased thermal resources for winter wheat yield. The effective growth period of winter wheat, which is defined as the whole growth period minus the dormancy period, was further analyzed and existed an interlaced banded distribution, which is closely related to adaptation measures taken such as the adoption of the double-delay technology, precision seeding, double assurance measure, adjusting the wheat varieties, and the rotation system. It is clearly demonstrated that adaptation measures are always context specific according to the local features of climate change and crop production practices. In-depth research is needed to investigate the effect of the interaction of climate change and adaptation measures on crop production.