Field data driven rockfall hazard and risk assessment along Sangla-Chitkul road, Himachal Pradesh, India

Abstract

This study addresses the issue of rockfall hazard in Baspa Valley, Himachal Pradesh, India. Proven empirical rockfall hazard rating systems were interpolated in the GIS-environment to analyse the contingent risk to the population. Initially, field data were ascertained from precarious rockfall locations along the 23 km long Sangla-Chitkul road. This was followed by a kinematic analysis to identify potential structural failure modes, revealing that each studied slope section could undergo one or a combination of failures. Rockfall Hazard Rating System (RHRS) parameters were formulated and interpolated for the entire area using the inverse-distance weighting (IDW) technique. Resulting hazard map, overlaid with population data, classified rockfall risk into five categories: very high (14.7%), high (28.8%), moderate (23.2%), low (18.6%), and very low (14.7%). A similar assessment using the Missouri Rockfall Hazard Rating System (MORFH-RS) showed the following rockfall risk distribution: very high (11%), high (21%), moderate (21%), low (21%), and very low (11%). Additionally, MORFH-RS indicated that around 90% of the area lies in high-risk and high-consequence zone, with high consequences for all locations. Two-dimensional stochastic simulations were conducted to understand rockfall dynamics at all studied locations, revealing that most sites exhibit kinetic energy exceeding 500 kJ, with five locations surpassing 1000 kJ. This indicates a high potential for significant damage across a large area of the valley, based on runout-distance data. Additionally, these findings were correlated with geotechnical characterization using Global Slope Performance Index (GSPI), identifying the potential for four distinct failure types in the valley.