Groundwater sustainability in the Varuna river basin: impacts of climate change and population growth

IF 2.8 4区环境科学与生态学 Q3 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental Earth Sciences Pub Date : 2025-05-21 DOI:10.1007/s12665-025-12213-4

Ranveer Kumar, Rajarshi Bhattacharjee, Shishir Gaur, Anurag Ohri

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Abstract

This study uses the SWAT model combined with bias-corrected climate projections across four SSP scenarios to assess the impacts of climate change and population-driven water demand on groundwater sustainability in the Varuna river basin (VRB). Climate anomaly analysis revealed a significant decrease in precipitation and an increase in temperature under higher emission scenarios (SSP370 and SSP585), intensifying recharge drought conditions and evapotranspiration rates. Using Anselin’s Local Moran’s I method, we identified distinct spatial patterns of groundwater recharge. The low-emission scenario showed a stable recharge distribution (SSP126), whereas higher-emission pathways revealed extensive clusters of recharge hotspots and coldspots, indicating regional disparities in recharge. Additionally, the analysis of the groundwater sustainability ratio (GSR) dynamics showed intensified over-exploitation risks in SSP585, which were driven by reduced recharge and higher atmospheric water demand. These findings highlight the necessity for adaptive water management strategies to address climate-driven recharge disparities and enhance groundwater sustainability in the VRB through artificial recharge.

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瓦鲁纳河流域地下水的可持续性：气候变化和人口增长的影响

本研究利用SWAT模型结合四种SSP情景的偏差校正气候预测，评估了气候变化和人口驱动的用水需求对瓦鲁纳河流域地下水可持续性的影响。气候异常分析显示，高排放情景（SSP370和SSP585）降水显著减少，温度显著升高，补给干旱条件和蒸散速率加剧。利用Anselin 's Local Moran 's I方法，我们确定了不同的地下水补给空间格局。低排放情景下补给分布稳定（SSP126），而高排放情景下补给热点和冷点分布广泛，表明补给存在区域差异。地下水可持续性比（GSR）动态分析表明，补给减少和大气需水量增加是SSP585过度开发风险加剧的驱动因素。这些发现强调了适应性水管理战略的必要性，以解决气候驱动的补给差异，并通过人工补给提高VRB地下水的可持续性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Environmental Earth Sciences 环境科学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

5.10

自引率

3.60%

发文量

494

审稿时长

8.3 months

期刊介绍： Environmental Earth Sciences is an international multidisciplinary journal concerned with all aspects of interaction between humans, natural resources, ecosystems, special climates or unique geographic zones, and the earth: Water and soil contamination caused by waste management and disposal practices Environmental problems associated with transportation by land, air, or water Geological processes that may impact biosystems or humans Man-made or naturally occurring geological or hydrological hazards Environmental problems associated with the recovery of materials from the earth Environmental problems caused by extraction of minerals, coal, and ores, as well as oil and gas, water and alternative energy sources Environmental impacts of exploration and recultivation – Environmental impacts of hazardous materials Management of environmental data and information in data banks and information systems Dissemination of knowledge on techniques, methods, approaches and experiences to improve and remediate the environment In pursuit of these topics, the geoscientific disciplines are invited to contribute their knowledge and experience. Major disciplines include: hydrogeology, hydrochemistry, geochemistry, geophysics, engineering geology, remediation science, natural resources management, environmental climatology and biota, environmental geography, soil science and geomicrobiology.