Temperature-driven shifts in spatiotemporal stability of climate-growth responses of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii) from the southern Baltic Sea region

Abstract

The southern Baltic region spans a significant part of the European continent with its forests under significant pressure due to climate changes. The implications of these changes are crucial for both native and non-native tree species. Under future climate scenarios, most native conifer populations might lose their climatic optima in the region. In contrast, for non-native Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), climatic conditions are expected to become optimal in the Baltic Sea region. Therefore, understanding the acclimatisation trajectory of Douglas-fir over the last century is essential to assess its potential to supplement retreating species and reduce pressure on local habitats. To study the region-wide acclimatisation in the secondary distribution, we established a network of 27 Douglas-fir tree-ring chronologies along the south Baltic Sea. We determined the spatio-temporal stability of the climate signal in tree rings and the potential coastal effect on the plasticity of the growth response. We found a region-wide trend of climate-growth relationships, with a dominant effect of the early-growth season temperatures being more pronounced for mature than young stands. Sites with higher mean annual temperatures exhibit a stronger positive temperature–growth correlation, demonstrating the sensitivity of Douglas-fir to climate warming. Douglas-fir could serve as a more heat-tolerant alternative to the declining European species of the Pinaceae family and contribute to the preservation of functionally comparable coniferous forest communities. However, forest practitioners should be aware that Douglas-fir may alter habitat conditions affecting microclimate and influencing species diversity.