Achieving bus electrification: Strategy for bus fleet replacement in cold region

Abstract

To achieve carbon neutrality, many regions have set electrification targets for bus fleets. However, the impact of low temperatures on electric bus (EB) operations is often overlooked, leading to operational difficulties. To this end, we introduce an EB replacement discount coefficient to quantify reduced range and slower charging under low-temperature conditions and develop a Bus Fleet Replacement (BFR) model for cold regions. A case study using typical cold-region data is conducted. Finally, we discuss the effects of individual and combined policies, and parameter variations on the electrification process. The results indicate: i) replacing buses with electric ones in cold regions does not significantly increase the life cycle costs; ii) EB price subsidies and annual operational subsidies effectively accelerate electrification, and most policy combinations further reduce social costs; iii) the model can adjust replacement strategies based on case data and parameter changes. These findings support optimal BFR strategies in cold regions.