Decision model for selecting a portfolio of non-technical loss mitigation projects for power distribution systems

Abstract

Non-technical losses (NTLs), often caused by fraud and theft, harm the quality of energy supply, increase tariffs, and impact sustainability. To address these issues, companies and researchers have increasingly invested in technologies, procedures, and projects to mitigate such losses. Considering the limited resources of distribution companies and the varied nature of NTL mitigation projects, supporting managers when selecting the most suitable projects becomes essential. This research, therefore, proposes a multicriteria model based on FITradeoff for portfolio problems to support managers in selecting a portfolio of NTL mitigation projects. The proposed model comprises several benefits, including the usage of partial information, thus reducing cognitive efforts from decision makers, and the benefit-to-cost ratio approach eliminates the need to compute and evaluate all possible portfolios, as is the case in combinatorial methods, thereby minimizing computational efforts. To demonstrate the model's effectiveness, a case study based on actual data is presented, outlining the steps followed from problem structuring and data gathering to the application through the decision support system of the FITradeoff method. Results demonstrate the model's effectiveness in capturing the decision-maker's preferences and generating recommendations accordingly, as well as its flexibility during the decision-making process and its potential to be replicated in other contexts.