Verisimilitude or Probability? The history and analysis of a recurring conflation

Abstract

Verisimilitude and epistemic probability are two fundamentally different concepts, and yet they are often being closely associated. This article outlines the theoretical difference between the two concepts and examines how related concepts – concepts that express either a closeness to truth or a closeness to certainty – were intertwined throughout the history of philosophy. It identifies those related concepts in ancient authors such as Plato, Aristotle, Galen, Cicero and Augustine, as well as in modern authors like J.S. Mill and more recent developments in philosophy and logic. By analysing the two broad families of concepts both theoretically and historically, and by advancing possible explanations for the frequent lack of distinction between them, the article seeks to promote greater clarity in both historical studies and contemporary philosophical thought.