Spatiotemporal patterns of desertification sensitivity and influencing factors across the Western Inner Mongolia Plateau, China

Abstract

Desertification remains a critical global ecological and environmental challenge that threatens sustainable development. Although our understanding of desertification dynamics and their underlying drivers has improved, continued research is needed due to the region-specific nature of these processes. This study focuses on the Western Inner Mongolia Plateau in China as a case study to examine the evolution of desertification and its driving factors using a multifaceted approach, including the Mediterranean Desertification and Land Use (MEDALUS) model. Results show that the desertification sensitivity index (DSI) across the plateau ranged from 1.12 in prairie regions to 1.87 in desert areas, with a spatial gradient decreasing from west to east. Overall, the DSI exhibited a declining trend over the study period, though some areas showed localized degradation. Between 2001 and 2020, the DSI decreased across approximately 64 % of the plateau, with approximately 23 % (primarily desert regions) experiencing a significant reduction. In contrast, 36 % of the area, particularly the southeastern grasslands, saw an increase in DSI. Among the examined factors, seven—precipitation, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), leaf area index(LAI), drought resistance, erosion protection, fire risk, and land-use intensity—demonstrated high explanatory power greater than 0.6, highlighting their significant positive or negative impact on desertification. Additional factors such as temperature, sunshine duration, and potential evapotranspiration also influenced desertification, albeit to a lesser extent. Notably, interactions among these variables played a crucial role in shaping desertification trends. Addressing desertification, therefore, requires integrated strategies that account for the complex interplay of soil, climate, vegetation, and land management.