A new scenario set for informing pathways to India’s next nationally determined contribution and 2070 net-zero target: structural reforms, LIFE, and sectoral pathways

Abstract

India announced 2070 as its net-zero target year at the 26th Conference of Parties (COP26) in 2021. The existing scenarios from India specific literature on 2070 net-zero, while very useful, mainly focus on alternative techno-economic pathways, power sector alone, and choice of peaking and net-zero years. But none of the existing scenarios go beyond the techno-economic and high-level GDP growth related uncertainties to a broader set of scenario underpinnings. Our study broadens the scenario set for India by assessing scenarios that have not till now been explored in India’s modelling literature, particularly in the context of the 2070 net-zero target. These include macroeconomic development (pathways related to urbanisation, manufacturing led economy, and urban rural inequity), energy efficiency, availability of low-carbon technology, structural reforms and behavioural change that determine future energy demand and emissions. We find that a high manufacturing share and high GDP growth rate in line with ‘Viksit Bharat’ would have the highest influence in terms of increasing India’s long-term energy use and emissions if industries continue to rely on fossil energy. We highlight that lifestyle changes and energy efficiency could have the largest impact in reduction of emissions in the long-term. Under a net-zero scenario however, power pricing reforms becomes a powerful tool for electrification of industrial energy use as well as higher penetration of rooftop solar in residential buildings as tariffs are rationalised, leading to savings in land and distribution losses among other benefits. We also present information on some relevant variables like emissions intensity of GDP and RE generation by 2035 to inform India’s upcoming 2035 NDC targets. We conclude by highlighting the criticality of complementary policies to reduce energy and electricity demand and associated land footprint for India, and the importance of a climate policy for India focusing directly on the high-level emissions pathway through a carbon market.