An equation for global energy efficiency gains in the long-run

IF 6.6 2区经济学 Q1 ECOLOGY

Ecological Economics Pub Date : 2025-05-20 DOI:10.1016/j.ecolecon.2025.108666

Hervé Bercegol

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This work focuses on the global economic efficiency of energy use, defined as the ratio at world scale of Gross Domestic Product to Final Energy Consumption, including food for humans and feed for draft animals. With a simple hypothesis of energy efficiency gains being proportional to economic activity, it evidences that for the last two centuries energy efficiency grew on average exponentially with the cumulative energy consumption. By extrapolating this relationship, I estimate that the global economic efficiency of energy doubled or so from the Neolithic transition up to 1820, whereas it roughly tripled since then. Concerning the present energy transition, the International Energy Agency's scenario for “Net zero emission” by 2050 would reverse a recent slowdown in efficiency gains and retrieve the trend of the last two centuries, eventually overpassing it. The equation thus provides a historical reference for analyzing the past and calibrating future energy consumption scenarios.

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从长远来看，这是全球能源效率增长的方程式

这项工作的重点是能源使用的全球经济效率，定义为世界范围内的国内生产总值与最终能源消耗的比率，包括人类食品和役畜饲料。通过一个简单的假设，即能源效率的增长与经济活动成正比，它证明了在过去的两个世纪里，能源效率随着累计能源消耗平均呈指数增长。通过推断这种关系，我估计从新石器时代过渡到1820年，全球能源经济效率大约翻了一番，而从那时起，它大约翻了三倍。就目前的能源转型而言，国际能源机构提出的到2050年实现“净零排放”的设想将扭转最近能源效率增长放缓的趋势，恢复过去两个世纪的趋势，并最终超越这一趋势。因此，该方程为分析过去和校准未来的能源消耗情景提供了历史参考。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Ecological Economics 环境科学-环境科学

CiteScore

12.00

自引率

5.70%

发文量

313

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： Ecological Economics is concerned with extending and integrating the understanding of the interfaces and interplay between "nature''s household" (ecosystems) and "humanity''s household" (the economy). Ecological economics is an interdisciplinary field defined by a set of concrete problems or challenges related to governing economic activity in a way that promotes human well-being, sustainability, and justice. The journal thus emphasizes critical work that draws on and integrates elements of ecological science, economics, and the analysis of values, behaviors, cultural practices, institutional structures, and societal dynamics. The journal is transdisciplinary in spirit and methodologically open, drawing on the insights offered by a variety of intellectual traditions, and appealing to a diverse readership. Specific research areas covered include: valuation of natural resources, sustainable agriculture and development, ecologically integrated technology, integrated ecologic-economic modelling at scales from local to regional to global, implications of thermodynamics for economics and ecology, renewable resource management and conservation, critical assessments of the basic assumptions underlying current economic and ecological paradigms and the implications of alternative assumptions, economic and ecological consequences of genetically engineered organisms, and gene pool inventory and management, alternative principles for valuing natural wealth, integrating natural resources and environmental services into national income and wealth accounts, methods of implementing efficient environmental policies, case studies of economic-ecologic conflict or harmony, etc. New issues in this area are rapidly emerging and will find a ready forum in Ecological Economics.