Geopolitical risks and airlines stock return — Implications to the financial stability of European airlines

IF 6.3 2区工程技术 Q1 ECONOMICS

Transport Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI:10.1016/j.tranpol.2025.05.001

Yifei Cai , Xiaowen Fu , Yahua Zhang

引用次数: 0

Abstract

This study utilizes a time-varying Granger causality test to investigate the causal relationship between geopolitical risks and stock return of main carriers in Europe. While the overall estimations from the entire dataset reveal limited evidence supporting causality between these variables, the rolling-window bootstrapping Granger causality test presents a dynamic pattern that a time-varying causality running from geopolitical risks to airline stock returns. However, within this fluctuating analytical framework, airline stock returns fail to reliably predict geopolitical risks. Finally, we offer significant policy implications to the financial stability of European airlines.

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地缘政治风险与航空公司股票回报——对欧洲航空公司财务稳定的影响

本研究采用时变格兰杰因果检验来考察地缘政治风险与欧洲主要航空公司股票收益之间的因果关系。虽然整个数据集的总体估计显示支持这些变量之间因果关系的证据有限，但滚动窗口自举格兰杰因果检验呈现出一种动态模式，即从地缘政治风险到航空公司股票回报的时变因果关系。然而，在这种波动的分析框架内，航空公司股票收益不能可靠地预测地缘政治风险。最后，我们提出了对欧洲航空公司财务稳定的重大政策影响。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Transport Policy Multiple-

CiteScore

12.10

自引率

10.30%

发文量

282

期刊介绍： Transport Policy is an international journal aimed at bridging the gap between theory and practice in transport. Its subject areas reflect the concerns of policymakers in government, industry, voluntary organisations and the public at large, providing independent, original and rigorous analysis to understand how policy decisions have been taken, monitor their effects, and suggest how they may be improved. The journal treats the transport sector comprehensively, and in the context of other sectors including energy, housing, industry and planning. All modes are covered: land, sea and air; road and rail; public and private; motorised and non-motorised; passenger and freight.