A deformation-based seismic hazard model for the Makran region

Abstract

The most prevalent approach for evaluating earthquake hazard is the probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), which commonly relies on earthquake catalogs. However, in subduction zones like Makran, southeast Iran where the return period of large-magnitude (Mw 7+) characteristics events is more than ∼1000–2000 years, the complementary data from deformation models are crucial to put more efficient constraints on the seismicity activity. An alternative method to address this issue, known as deformation-based PSHA involves estimating activity rates from deformation-based strain rates. Here, we estimate the earthquake occurrence rates for events with M_w 4+ using strain rates derived from a comprehensive deformation model of the Makran region, using complementary regional seismicity parameters, such as $\beta$ and $m_{\max }$. As a representative, we selected a limited number of points in each seismic province and compared them to their long-term activity rate estimations based on available catalogs. Our deformation-based hazard model estimates higher hazard levels than other catalog-based models, for a substantial portion of the study area.