Multi-perspective analysis of long-term vehicle emissions under intensive policy updates in China

Abstract

China has implemented stringent emission control policies for passenger cars and trucks to mitigate vehicle exhaust emissions. Quantifying the environmental impact of policies requires the continuous updating and refinement of emission inventories. This study thus constructed long-term (2010–2021) emission inventory by vehicle type, fuel type and emission standard, considering regional differences and incorporating demographic and economic factors. Key findings included annual reductions in CO, HC, and PM_2.5 emissions by 2.9%, 4.5%, and 4.9%, respectively, while CO₂ and NOx emissions increased by 9% and 1.9%. Over 40% emissions were concentrated in six eastern provinces, which also achieved more pronounced emission reduction. Meanwhile, stronger economic support enabled lower emission while meeting higher transportation demand. Conversely, northeastern and northwestern provinces required greater attention to cope with adverse environmental impacts. Therefore, it is necessary to promote public transportation for eastern provinces and control vehicle growth for other provinces.