Stochastic techno-economic assessment of a grid-connected rooftop photovoltaic in Iran

Abstract

This study examines the technical and economic performance of a grid-connected rooftop photovoltaic system with a nominal capacity of 8456 kW. The analysis is based on a case study of an industrial plant in Iran, considering both the feed-in tariff and time-of-use scheme. A three-stage approach is employed, utilizing a combination of MATLAB software, PVsyst, and HOMER Grid. To account for load and renewable energy sources uncertainties, scenario-based and backward methods are employed to generate a manageable set of relevant scenarios. Given the project’s 25-year lifespan, a sensitivity analysis is conducted to assess the impact of varying annual grid electricity tariff increases. In the first step, using MATLAB, scenarios are created to account for uncertainty. In the second stage, based on the data from the previous stage, the design and technical analysis of the PV system evaluated using PVsyst software. Finally, in the third stage, the economic analysis of the proposed system is performed in HOMER grid software, using the outputs from the previous two stages. The simulated PV system achieved an average performance ratio of 80.4%. Additionally, the system has the potential to reduce CO2 emissions by 188,611.595 tons over its lifetime. Furthermore, the economic analysis, incorporating a comprehensive sensitivity analysis of key factors such as grid tariff increases, PV degradation, and inflation rates, indicates that the proposed system’s net present cost becomes lower than that of relying solely on grid electricity if the annual grid tariff increase exceeds 10%.