{"title":"A robust asymptotic control model to analyze climate policy with CDR options","authors":"Frédéric Babonneau , Alain Haurie , Marc Vielle","doi":"10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105114","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>A three-region optimal economic growth model is proposed to represent the global energy transition to net-zero emissions when carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are available. The main features of the model are (i) the representation of the economy and energy use with nested CES production functions; (ii) the representation of climate policy through the use of a safety cumulative emissions budget concept; and (iii) the introduction of an international emissions trading scheme for the implementation of climate policy. Using an infinite horizon optimal control paradigm, several contrasting scenarios are analyzed both in an asymptotic steady state or “turnpike” point, and in an optimal transition to sustainability. This very compact model produces dynamic path simulations that are consistent with the main recommendations from IPCC for long term climate policies. The potential use of this simple model in future developments in climate and economic modeling is discussed.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":48314,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","volume":"177 ","pages":"Article 105114"},"PeriodicalIF":1.9000,"publicationDate":"2025-05-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Economic Dynamics & Control","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188925000806","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
A three-region optimal economic growth model is proposed to represent the global energy transition to net-zero emissions when carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are available. The main features of the model are (i) the representation of the economy and energy use with nested CES production functions; (ii) the representation of climate policy through the use of a safety cumulative emissions budget concept; and (iii) the introduction of an international emissions trading scheme for the implementation of climate policy. Using an infinite horizon optimal control paradigm, several contrasting scenarios are analyzed both in an asymptotic steady state or “turnpike” point, and in an optimal transition to sustainability. This very compact model produces dynamic path simulations that are consistent with the main recommendations from IPCC for long term climate policies. The potential use of this simple model in future developments in climate and economic modeling is discussed.
期刊介绍:
The journal provides an outlet for publication of research concerning all theoretical and empirical aspects of economic dynamics and control as well as the development and use of computational methods in economics and finance. Contributions regarding computational methods may include, but are not restricted to, artificial intelligence, databases, decision support systems, genetic algorithms, modelling languages, neural networks, numerical algorithms for optimization, control and equilibria, parallel computing and qualitative reasoning.