Valuation of the 2020 Gross Ecosystem Product of China and Analysis of Driving Factors

Abstract

Gross ecosystem product (GEP) is the total value of ecological goods and ecosystem services provided by ecosystems. An adequate assessment of the GEP is important for balancing economic development and ecological protection. In this study, the GEP of China in 2020 was calculated based on the latest 2022 GEP accounting guidelines. Its spatial characteristics were analysed using standard deviation ellipses, kernel density analysis, and spatial autocorrelation analysis. The GEP correlation analysis was conducted based on principal component analysis and multiple linear regression, whereas the GEP driver analysis was performed using Geodetector. The results show that the GEP value of China reached 66.11 trillion CNY in 2020, with rural areas having contributed 13.23 times greater GEP than did urban areas; the per capita GEP in rural areas was 5.8 times greater than that in urban areas. The forest ecosystem had the highest GEP value among all terrestrial ecosystems, representing 47.73% of the total GEP value. The GEP of the urban ecosystem was generally underestimated, as it was the third most significant contributor, with a 7.03% share of the total GEP. Environmental factors have a higher impact on GEP than do social factors, and temperature and rainfall were identified as the main drivers. The results of this analysis support our recommendation that policymakers should consider optimising the allocation of economic and ecological factors to increase both GDP and GEP outputs within a limited space and complement incentive policies for regions with high GEP outputs.