Decarbonization pathways for the plastic packaging industry: Revealing the synergistic mechanism of plastic lifecycle management

Abstract

The plastic packaging industry has the largest consumption of plastics. It is crucial to explore the decarbonization pathways of the plastic packaging industry to help fulfill greenhouse gases emission (GHGs) reduction targets. We use material flow analysis and lifecycle assessment method to investigate nine scenarios based on eco-design, circular economy, and technological innovation. We analyze the consumption and GHGs of China’s plastic packaging industry from 2000 to 2020, exploring the potential for GHGs reduction under different scenarios. The results show that China’s plastic packaging consumption will continue to grow from 2020 to 2060, reaching 74.6 million tonnes (Mt). Plastic packaging consumption in the food sector is predicted to surpass that of the non-food sector in 2044. Meanwhile, polyethylene will become the predominant plastic used in the packaging industry. By 2060, the transportation sector will have the largest in-use stock of plastic packaging. The policy combination scenario can achieve GHGs peaking before 2030, while a GHGs gap of 32.9 Mt will persist until 2060. By further improving the recycling rate, reducing the consumption of degradable plastics, and increasing the application of carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) technology, the plastic packaging industry is expected to achieve the net-zero carbon emission target.