[Predicting the impact of climate change on the habitat distribution of Grus nigricollis based on the MaxEnt model].

Abstract

Under the context of global climate change, the shifts in suitable habitats of different species have become one of the major threats to biodiversity. We simulated the distribution habitats of Grus nigricollis under current climatic condition and predicted potential changes under three climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) with the MaxEnt model based on the distribution records of G. nigricollis and environmental variables. The results showed that: 1) Elevation, annual temperature range, and mean temperature of the wettest quarter were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of potential breeding habitats for G. nigricollis, while the wintering habitats were significantly influenced by factors such as isothermality, elevation, and temperature annual range. 2) Under the current climate condition, the breeding habitats of G. nigricollis were mainly distributed in Xinjiang, Gansu, Qinghai, Tibet, Sichuan of China, as well as India, with a highly suitable breeding area of 27.07×10⁴ km². The wintering grounds were primarily located in Tibet, Sichuan, Yunnan of China, as well as Bhutan, Nepal, India, and Myanmar, with a highly suitable wintering area of 21.15×10⁴ km². 3) Under future climate scenarios, the overall potential suitable habitats for G. nigricollis remained stable, with the retention rate of stable areas exceeding 80%. Among these, the breeding habitats showed an increasing trend, while the wintering habitats exhibited a decreasing trend. 4) Under different climate scenarios, the centroid of breeding ground of G. nigricollis would gene-rally move southeastward, while the centroid of wintering ground mainly moved westward, potentially reducing migration distance. By predicting the changes in the potential suitable habitat for G. nigricollis on a large regional scale under future climate scenarios and revealing the impact of climate change on their distribution, this study could provide a scientific basis for the conservation of G. nigricollis and the formulation of relevant strategies.