Global, regional, and national trends in tobacco-induced cardiovascular disease burden for 1990-2021 with projections to 2045: A comprehensive analysis based on the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

IF 2.2 4区医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

Tobacco Induced Diseases Pub Date : 2025-05-15 eCollection Date: 2025-01-01 DOI:10.18332/tid/204008

Xiaoqiang Zhu, Lei Chen, Xinyue Yang, Yanyan Du, Yangyu Zhao, Tenglong Hu, Na Sun, Qiang Sun, Wenyan Liang, Xiqing Wei, Zhiqiang Zhang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Introduction: Tobacco use is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), and its global disease burden trends require further clarification. This study aims to analyze trends in global CVD burden attributable to tobacco in 1990-2021 and project mortality rates and disease burden through 2045.

Methods: Using Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2021 data, we analyzed temporal trends using age-period-cohort models, evaluated change points with Joinpoint regression, and conducted forecasting using Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models.

Results: In 2021, tobacco-attributable CVD deaths reached 2.147 million globally (71.3% increase from 1990), although age-standardized mortality rates decreased to 25.36 per 100000 (83.3% reduction). Mortality rates were lowest in high SDI regions (326.71 per 100000) and highest in low-middle sociodemographic index (SDI) regions (788.05 per 100000). The proportion of deaths among those aged ≥80 years increased from 19.2% to 26.2%. Global mortality rates decreased by 1.8% annually, with a greater decline in females (-2.6%) than males (-1.6%). Projections suggest that by 2045, global CVD deaths may reach approximately 3.267 million (52.1% potential increase), although age-standardized mortality rates are expected to decrease to around 38.6 per 100000 (15.9% estimated reduction). Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) are projected to potentially increase to 75.755 million (39.9% estimated increase), while age-standardized DALY rates could decline to approximately 1008.02 per 100000.

Conclusions: Between 1990 and 2021, global tobacco-attributable CVD mortality rates showed a declining trend, with notable regional, sex, and age disparities. Projections indicate that while age-standardized rates will continue to decrease, absolute numbers of deaths and disease burden will increase. The findings emphasize the need to strengthen tobacco control and CVD prevention in low-middle SDI regions.

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1990-2021年全球、区域和国家烟草引起的心血管疾病负担趋势及到2045年的预测：基于《2021年全球疾病负担研究》的综合分析

烟草使用是心血管疾病（CVD）的一个主要危险因素，其全球疾病负担趋势需要进一步澄清。本研究旨在分析1990-2021年全球由烟草引起的心血管疾病负担的趋势，并预测到2045年的死亡率和疾病负担。方法：使用全球疾病负担研究（GBD） 2021数据，使用年龄-时期-队列模型分析时间趋势，使用Joinpoint回归评估变化点，并使用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列（BAPC）模型进行预测。结果：2021年，全球因烟草导致的心血管疾病死亡人数达到214.7万（比1990年增加71.3%），尽管年龄标准化死亡率降至25.36 / 10万（下降83.3%）。死亡率在高社会人口指数地区最低（每10万人中有326.71人），在中低社会人口指数地区最高（每10万人中有788.05人）。年龄≥80岁的死亡比例从19.2%上升到26.2%。全球死亡率每年下降1.8%，其中女性（-2.6%）的下降幅度大于男性（-1.6%）。预测表明，到2045年，全球心血管疾病死亡人数可能达到约326.7万（可能增加52.1%），尽管年龄标准化死亡率预计将降至每10万人38.6左右（估计减少15.9%）。残疾调整生命年（DALYs）预计可能增加到7575.5万（估计增长39.9%），而年龄标准化DALY比率可能下降到大约1008.02 / 100000。结论：1990年至2021年间，全球烟草导致的心血管疾病死亡率呈下降趋势，存在显著的区域、性别和年龄差异。预测表明，虽然年龄标准化率将继续下降，但死亡和疾病负担的绝对数字将增加。研究结果强调了在中低SDI地区加强烟草控制和心血管疾病预防的必要性。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Tobacco Induced Diseases SUBSTANCE ABUSE-PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH

CiteScore

5.30

自引率

5.40%

发文量

审稿时长

12 weeks

期刊介绍： Tobacco Induced Diseases encompasses all aspects of research related to the prevention and control of tobacco use at a global level. Preventing diseases attributable to tobacco is only one aspect of the journal, whose overall scope is to provide a forum for the publication of research articles that can contribute to reducing the burden of tobacco induced diseases globally. To address this epidemic we believe that there must be an avenue for the publication of research/policy activities on tobacco control initiatives that may be very important at a regional and national level. This approach provides a very important "hands on" service to the tobacco control community at a global scale - as common problems have common solutions. Hence, we see ourselves as "connectors" within this global community. The journal hence encourages the submission of articles from all medical, biological and psychosocial disciplines, ranging from medical and dental clinicians, through health professionals to basic biomedical and clinical scientists.