Incidence, prevalence, and burden of type 2 diabetes in China: Trend and projection from 1990 to 2050.

IF 7.5 3区医学 Q1 MEDICINE, GENERAL & INTERNAL

Chinese Medical Journal Pub Date : 2025-05-16 DOI:10.1097/CM9.0000000000003536

Haojie Zhang, Qingyi Jia, Peige Song, Yongze Li, Lihua Jiang, Xianghui Fu, Sheyu Li

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Background: Type 2 diabetes is common in China without comprehensive summary and future anticipation of its incidence, prevalence, associated death, and disability. This analysis described the epidemiological transition of type 2 diabetes in the past three decades and projected the trend in the future three decades in China.

Methods: Age-, sex-, and year-specific incidence, prevalence, death, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for people with 15 years or older and diabetes or high fasting glucose in China and related countries from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease. We obtained the trends of age-, sex-, and year-specific rates and absolute numbers of incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs attributable to type 2 diabetes in China from 1990 to 2021. Using the Lee-Carter model, we projected the incidence, prevalence, deaths, and DALYs attributable to type 2 diabetes to 2050 stratified by age and sex.

Results: The age-standardized incidence of type 2 diabetes was 341.5 per 100,000 persons (1.6 times in 1990) and the age-standardized prevalence was 9960.0 per 100,000 persons (2.5 times in 1990) in China 2021. In 2021, there were 0.9 million deaths and 26.8 million DALYs due to type 2 diabetes or hyperglycemia, as 2.9 and 2.7 times the data in 1990, respectively. In the projection, the age-standardized incidence (449.5 per 100,000 persons in 2050) will continue to increase but the growing rate will slow down in the future decades. With the population aging, there will be estimated 211.2 million Chinese people with type 2 diabetes with an anticipated age-standardized prevalence of 18,171.2 per 100,000 persons, 244.6 per 100,000 deaths, and 4720.2 per 100,000 DALYs in 2050. The incidence of type 2 diabetes kept growing among adolescents and young adults in the past three decades (128.7, 439.9, and estimated 1870.8 per 100,000 persons in 1990, 2021, and 2050, respectively).

Conclusions: The incidence, prevalence, and disease burden of type 2 diabetes grew rapidly in China in the past three decades. The greatest challenges in the future three decades will be the prevention of type 2 diabetes in young people and the care for elder adults.

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中国2型糖尿病的发病率、患病率和负担：1990 - 2050年的趋势和预测。

背景：2型糖尿病在中国很常见，但对其发病率、患病率、相关死亡和致残率没有全面的总结和未来的预测。该分析描述了过去30年中国2型糖尿病的流行病学转变，并预测了未来30年的趋势。方法：从全球疾病负担（Global Burden of Disease）中获取1990年至2021年中国及相关国家15岁及以上糖尿病或高血糖患者的年龄、性别和年份特异性发病率、患病率、死亡率和残疾调整生命年（DALYs）。我们获得了1990年至2021年中国2型糖尿病的年龄、性别和特定年份的发病率趋势，以及发病率、患病率、死亡率和DALYs的绝对数字。使用Lee-Carter模型，我们按年龄和性别对2050年2型糖尿病的发病率、患病率、死亡率和DALYs进行了分层预测。结果：2021年中国2型糖尿病年龄标准化发病率为341.5 / 10万人（1990年为1.6倍），年龄标准化患病率为9960.0 / 10万人（1990年为2.5倍）。2021年，2型糖尿病或高血糖导致90万例死亡和2680万例伤残调整生命年，分别是1990年的2.9倍和2.7倍。在预测中，年龄标准化发病率（2050年为每10万人449.5例）将继续增加，但未来几十年的增长速度将放缓。随着人口老龄化，预计到2050年，中国将有2.112亿2型糖尿病患者，预计年龄标准化患病率为每10万人18171.2人，每10万死亡244.6人，每10万DALYs 4720.2人。在过去三十年中，青少年和年轻人的2型糖尿病发病率持续增长（1990年、2021年和2050年分别为每10万人128.7例、439.9例和估计1870.8例）。结论：近30年来，中国2型糖尿病的发病率、患病率和疾病负担快速增长。未来三十年最大的挑战将是年轻人2型糖尿病的预防和老年人的护理。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Chinese Medical Journal 医学-医学：内科

CiteScore

9.80

自引率

4.90%

发文量

19245

审稿时长

6 months

期刊介绍： The Chinese Medical Journal (CMJ) is published semimonthly in English by the Chinese Medical Association, and is a peer reviewed general medical journal for all doctors, researchers, and health workers regardless of their medical specialty or type of employment. Established in 1887, it is the oldest medical periodical in China and is distributed worldwide. The journal functions as a window into China’s medical sciences and reflects the advances and progress in China’s medical sciences and technology. It serves the objective of international academic exchange. The journal includes Original Articles, Editorial, Review Articles, Medical Progress, Brief Reports, Case Reports, Viewpoint, Clinical Exchange, Letter,and News,etc. CMJ is abstracted or indexed in many databases including Biological Abstracts, Chemical Abstracts, Index Medicus/Medline, Science Citation Index (SCI), Current Contents, Cancerlit, Health Plan & Administration, Embase, Social Scisearch, Aidsline, Toxline, Biocommercial Abstracts, Arts and Humanities Search, Nuclear Science Abstracts, Water Resources Abstracts, Cab Abstracts, Occupation Safety & Health, etc. In 2007, the impact factor of the journal by SCI is 0.636, and the total citation is 2315.