Nomograms Predicting Long-Term Survival in Patients With De Novo Metastatic Colon Cancer: A Population-Based Analysis.

IF 0.9 4区医学 Q3 SURGERY

Annali italiani di chirurgia Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI:10.62713/aic.3345

Rong Wang, Junchi Cheng, Wangyan Zhong, Xiaohong Wang

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Aim: Our study aims to evaluate the overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) of patients with colon cancer who present with distant metastasis, and to construct a prognostic nomogram for forecasting long-term survival outcomes.

Methods: This population-based cohort analysis involved patients identified with de novo metastatic colon cancer between 2010 and 2015, utilizing data from the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database.

Results: The analysis comprised 6857 individuals diagnosed with de novo metastatic colon cancer and divided evenly into training and validation sets. Results from multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that both OS and CSS were independently influenced by histological grade, patient age, T and N stage, presence of distant metastasis, perineural invasion, levels of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA), receipt of chemotherapy, and surgery. Additionally, race emerged as a predictive factor for CSS but not for OS. The investigation successfully crafted a predictive nomogram capable of estimating personalized long-term survival probabilities, with a concordance index (C-index) of approximately 0.72 in both training and validation cohorts. By incorporating various clinicopathological characteristics, this nomogram effectively stratifies patients into distinct risk groups, each with a unique prognostic outlook.

Conclusions: This investigation sheds light on prognostic factors that impact the survival of patients with newly diagnosed metastatic colon cancer. Nomograms also enable accurate prediction of individual long-term survival for patients with de novo metastatic colon cancer.

查看原文本刊更多论文

预测新发转移性结肠癌患者的长期生存：一项基于人群的分析。

目的：本研究旨在评估伴有远处转移的结肠癌患者的总生存期（OS）和癌症特异性生存期（CSS），并构建预测长期生存结局的预后nomogram。方法：这项基于人群的队列分析纳入了2010年至2015年间确诊为新发转移性结肠癌的患者，数据来自监测流行病学和最终结果（SEER）数据库。结果：该分析包括6857名诊断为新生转移性结肠癌的个体，并平均分为训练组和验证组。多因素Cox回归分析结果显示，OS和CSS均受组织学分级、患者年龄、T和N分期、远处转移、神经周围浸润、癌胚抗原（CEA）水平、接受化疗和手术的独立影响。此外，种族成为CSS的预测因素，而不是OS。该研究成功地制作了一个能够估计个性化长期生存概率的预测nomogram，在训练和验证队列中的一致性指数（C-index）均约为0.72。通过结合不同的临床病理特征，该nomographic有效地将患者分为不同的风险组，每个风险组都有独特的预后前景。结论：本研究揭示了影响新诊断转移性结肠癌患者生存的预后因素。nomography也能准确预测新发转移性结肠癌患者的个体长期生存。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Annali italiani di chirurgia 医学-外科

CiteScore

0.90

自引率

12.50%

发文量

116

审稿时长

>12 weeks

期刊介绍： Annali Italiani di Chirurgia is a bimonthly journal and covers all aspects of surgery:elective, emergency and experimental surgery, as well as problems involving technology, teaching, organization and forensic medicine. The articles are published in Italian or English, though English is preferred because it facilitates the international diffusion of the journal (v.Guidelines for Authors and Norme per gli Autori). The articles published are divided into three main sections:editorials, original articles, and case reports and innovations.