Renewable energy trade destruction and deflection: Effects of antidumping and countervailing measures on Chinese solar photovoltaic exports

IF 9.3 2区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Energy Policy Pub Date : 2025-05-17 DOI:10.1016/j.enpol.2025.114687

Boqiang Lin , Yida Liu

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

In the context of the worldwide shift toward sustainable energy and escalating trade barriers, the domestic solar energy sector encounters ongoing challenges from antidumping and countervailing measures. This research explores the adverse impact of antidumping and countervailing policies (ADCV) on Chinese Solar Photovoltaic Exports (CSPE), as well as how CSPE shift to third-party markets in response to these trade protection measures, utilizing a panel dataset from 2007 to 2020, with analysis conducted using a staggered DID model. The results show that (1) ADCV have trade-destruction effects and substantially reduce CSPE. (2) The trade deflection effects indicates that when CSPE are restricted by ADCV, they are redirected to third-party nations with strong PV demand, infrastructure, and energy transitions. Additionally, some production capacity shifts to domestic sales, mitigating the negative impact of trade disruptions. (3) The heterogeneity analysis reveals that ADCV affect China's PV exports differently based on varying policy enforcement, energy investment levels, and energy dependence across countries. The findings of this paper provide valuable insights for China to deal with renewable energy trade barriers and optimize the overseas market layout of the PV industry.

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可再生能源贸易破坏与偏转：反倾销与反补贴措施对中国太阳能光伏出口的影响

在全球转向可持续能源和贸易壁垒不断升级的背景下，国内太阳能行业面临反倾销和反补贴措施的持续挑战。本研究利用2007年至2020年的面板数据，利用交错DID模型进行分析，探讨了反倾销和反补贴政策（ADCV）对中国太阳能光伏出口（CSPE）的不利影响，以及CSPE如何向第三方市场转移以应对这些贸易保护措施。结果表明：(1)ADCV具有贸易破坏效应，显著降低了CSPE。(2)贸易偏转效应表明，当CSPE受到ADCV的限制时，它们会被重新定向到光伏需求强劲、基础设施和能源转型的第三方国家。此外，一些产能转向国内销售，减轻了贸易中断的负面影响。(3)异质性分析表明，各国政策执行力度、能源投资水平和能源依赖程度不同，ADCV对中国光伏出口的影响也不同。本文的研究结果为中国应对可再生能源贸易壁垒、优化光伏产业海外市场布局提供了有价值的见解。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Energy Policy 管理科学-环境科学

CiteScore

17.30

自引率

5.60%

发文量

540

审稿时长

7.9 months

期刊介绍： Energy policy is the manner in which a given entity (often governmental) has decided to address issues of energy development including energy conversion, distribution and use as well as reduction of greenhouse gas emissions in order to contribute to climate change mitigation. The attributes of energy policy may include legislation, international treaties, incentives to investment, guidelines for energy conservation, taxation and other public policy techniques. Energy policy is closely related to climate change policy because totalled worldwide the energy sector emits more greenhouse gas than other sectors.