Achieving energy sustainability of Pakistan's power sector through long-term scenario modeling and analysis

Abstract

Pakistan's energy sector faces significant challenges compounded by the impacts of climate change from fossil fuel-based emissions. The country's energy sector remains heavily dependent on imported fossil fuels. This reliance also exposes the country to economic vulnerabilities from the volatility of global oil prices, resulting in power shortages and escalating electricity prices. This research explores how long-term energy planning can address these issues by examining four scenarios: Business as Usual (BAU), Zero-Emission (ZE), Indigenous Coal (IC), and Energy Efficiency (EE) for 2030 and 2050 using the EnergyPLAN software. The scenarios are evaluated and ranked using the Weighted Aggregated Sum Product Assessment (WASPAS) multi-criteria decision-making technique. Results are compared for policy alignment with Pakistan's Nationally Determined Contributions under the Paris Agreement. The EnergyPLAN simulation results show that the ZE scenario, a 100 % renewable energy-based system, can meet 1706 TWh demand by 2050, with annual costs of $632 Bn, and give a CO₂ reduction of 662 MTCO₂ compared to BAU. The BAU scenario requires $610.12 Bn with emissions of 700 MTCO₂, while the IC scenario incurs lower costs of $558.95 Bn but has the highest emissions at 889 MTCO₂. The EE scenario achieves the lowest costs at $551.39 Bn with 450 MTCO₂ emissions due to improved energy efficiency. The WASPAS results emphasize the need for significant investment in renewable energy and aggressive implementation of energy efficiency measures for a sustainable power sector. This study aims to provide valuable insights for policymakers and energy planners to identify an optimal energy scenario, balancing economic, environmental, and policy factors.