Machine learning prediction prior to onset of mild cognitive impairment using T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging radiomic of the hippocampus

Abstract

Background

Early identification of individuals who progress from normal cognition (NC) to mild cognitive impairment (MCI) may help prevent cognitive decline. We aimed to build predictive models using radiomic features of the bilateral hippocampus in combination with scores from neuropsychological assessments.

Methods

We utilized the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative (ADNI) database to study 175 NC individuals, identifying 50 who progressed to MCI within seven years. Employing the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) on T1-weighted images, we extracted and refined hippocampal features. Classification models, including Logistic Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), and light gradient boosters (LightGBM), were built based on significant neuropsychological scores. Model validation was conducted using 5-fold cross-validation, and hyperparameters were optimized with Scikit-learn, using an 80:20 data split for training and testing.

Results

We found that the LightGBM model achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) value of 0.89 and an accuracy of 0.79 in the training set, and an AUC value of 0.80 and an accuracy of 0.74 in the test set.

Conclusion

The study identified that T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging radiomic of the hippocampus would be used to predict the progression to MCI at the normal cognitive stage, which might provide a new insight into clinical research.