The efficiency of Iran's sectoral policies through the lens of GEFL (Groundwater Energy Food Land) Nexus in comparison with the sectoral view

Abstract

In Middle Eastern countries, water security is a major concern due to arid and warm climates. In Iran, water supply challenges have led to the adoption of National Policy Statements targetting sustainable water resources management. While these policies span the energy, food, and land, i energy, food, and land sectors;, their interdependencies have not been comprehensively assessed. This study evaluates the effectiveness of Iran's sectoral policies through the Groundwater-Energy-Food-Land Nexus framework. A conceptual model is developed to compare outcomes under Nexus-based and sectoral priority approaches. Four scenarios were assessed, including programmable groundwater volume limitation, unauthorized groundwater and electric energy consumption prevention, cultivation patterns, and routine groundwater abstraction. Scenario 3 achieves 100 % of the food target but requires 51 % more groundwater and 11 % more energy than sustainable limits. Scenario 2 meets 52 % of the food target while adhering to groundwater limits but exceeds energy consumption by 22 %. Scenario 1 supplies 92 % of the food target but surpasses groundwater and energy limits by 12 % and 7 %, respectively. Scenario 4, the most sustainable option, produces 60 % of the food target while maintaining groundwater and energy sustainability. These findings underscore the necessity of integrated, cross-sectoral policy frameworks to balance resource sustainability with development objectives in arid regions.