Prediction and controlling factors of high-fluoride groundwater in the Yellow River Basin based on machine learning model

IF 4.9 Q2 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
Chunli Su , Weili Ge , Xianjun Xie , Zhihao Guo , Zhaohui Luo , Yiqun Gan , Ziyi Xiao , Yanhui Gao , Yanmei Yang
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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Long-term consumption of high-fluoride water (F > 1.5 mg/L) has significant negative effects on human health. In the Yellow River Basin of northern China, fluorosis resulting from geogenic groundwater fluoride contamination has been observed in several basins. In this study, the machine learning algorithm regression modeling was employed to predict the distribution of high-fluoride groundwater and potential population at risk using 30337 groundwater samples and 40 relevant environmental factors, with random forest (RF) was identified as the optimal algorithm. The model incorporated various environmental factors, including hydrogeology, climate, soil, topography, and human activities and the model performed well, with the value of AUC of 0.86. The climatic variables were identified as the primary factors influencing the model based on the ranking of their importance. The probability distribution map with a resolution of 250 m drawn from the modelling results shows that high-fluoride groundwater is mainly distributed within the basins, Loess Plateau, the front edge and the southern part of the Yellow-Huai-Hai River Plain (also known as North China Plain). The climate plays a vital role in regulating the distribution patterns of high-fluoride groundwater. Based on different probability cut-off values, it is estimated that approximately 7.307 and 8.899 million people in the study area may be at risk of direct consumption of fluoride-contaminated groundwater. High-fluoride groundwater primarily occurs in shallow pore aquifers of alluvial plains. Fine-grained sediments with high clay content and high levels of cations with exchangeable sites favor the enrichment of fluoride in groundwater. Alluvial and alkaline soils exhibit significant impacts on the enrichment of fluoride. Significant temperature differences and uneven precipitation are the main climatic factors affecting fluoride enrichment in groundwater. This study helps to enhance the understanding of the spatial differentiation and driving mechanism of high-fluoride groundwater, and provides a scientific basis for preventing endemic fluorosis and ensuring water supply security.
基于机器学习模型的黄河流域高氟地下水预测及控制因素
长期饮用高氟水(F >;1.5毫克/升)对人体健康有显著的负面影响。在中国北方黄河流域,有几个盆地出现了地源性地下水氟化物污染引起的氟中毒。本研究利用30337份地下水样本和40个相关环境因子,采用机器学习算法回归建模对高氟地下水分布及潜在高危人群进行预测,并确定随机森林(random forest, RF)算法为最优算法。该模型综合了水文地质、气候、土壤、地形、人类活动等多种环境因子,模型的AUC值为0.86,表现良好。根据气候变量的重要性排序,确定气候变量为影响模型的主要因素。根据模拟结果绘制的分辨率为250 m的概率分布图显示,高氟地下水主要分布在黄淮海平原(又称华北平原)的流域、黄土高原、前缘和南部。气候对高氟化物地下水的分布格局起着至关重要的调节作用。根据不同的概率截断值,估计研究区可能直接饮用氟化物污染地下水的风险分别为7307万人和889.9万人。高氟化物地下水主要存在于冲积平原浅层孔隙含水层中。具有高粘土含量和高交换位阳离子水平的细粒沉积物有利于地下水中氟化物的富集。冲积土和碱性土壤对氟的富集有显著影响。显著的温差和不均匀的降水是影响地下水氟化物富集的主要气候因素。本研究有助于加深对高氟地下水空间分异及其驱动机制的认识,为防治地方性氟中毒、保障供水安全提供科学依据。
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来源期刊
Groundwater for Sustainable Development
Groundwater for Sustainable Development Social Sciences-Geography, Planning and Development
CiteScore
11.50
自引率
10.20%
发文量
152
期刊介绍: Groundwater for Sustainable Development is directed to different stakeholders and professionals, including government and non-governmental organizations, international funding agencies, universities, public water institutions, public health and other public/private sector professionals, and other relevant institutions. It is aimed at professionals, academics and students in the fields of disciplines such as: groundwater and its connection to surface hydrology and environment, soil sciences, engineering, ecology, microbiology, atmospheric sciences, analytical chemistry, hydro-engineering, water technology, environmental ethics, economics, public health, policy, as well as social sciences, legal disciplines, or any other area connected with water issues. The objectives of this journal are to facilitate: • The improvement of effective and sustainable management of water resources across the globe. • The improvement of human access to groundwater resources in adequate quantity and good quality. • The meeting of the increasing demand for drinking and irrigation water needed for food security to contribute to a social and economically sound human development. • The creation of a global inter- and multidisciplinary platform and forum to improve our understanding of groundwater resources and to advocate their effective and sustainable management and protection against contamination. • Interdisciplinary information exchange and to stimulate scientific research in the fields of groundwater related sciences and social and health sciences required to achieve the United Nations Millennium Development Goals for sustainable development.
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