From compound climate risks to adaptive governance: Sectoral economic exposure to heat-drought compound events in coastal China

Abstract

Compound extremes, such as heat-drought compound extremes (HDCEs), are intensifying with climate change, posing escalating risks to coastal economies. In coastal China, where rapid socioeconomic development intersects with increasing climate hazards, coastal governance faces growing challenges in managing such compound risks. However, limited research has quantified the economic exposure to HDCEs under various warming scenarios, which is crucial for guiding adaptive governance and sustainable coastal development. This study quantifies sectoral economic exposure to HDCEs under 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3°0 C global warming scenarios, using multi-model climate ensemble and gross domestic product (GDP) projections from the SSP-RCP framework. Results show that total GDP exposure in coastal China in three warming scenarios will increase by 12.54 ± 0.63, 15.38 ± 1.83, and 61.64 ± 8.73 times, respectively, relative to the base period (1995–2014). Notably, northern coastal China exhibits much higher exposure than eastern and southern regions, and the tertiary sector is projected to face the largest increase, reaching up to 125.05 ± 17.70 times under the 3.0 °C scenario. The dominant contribution (48 %–71 %) to exposure increase stems from the interactive effect between climate and GDP change. By linking these findings to sustainable development goals (SDGs) like SDG8 (Decent work and economic growth) and SDG13 (Climate action), this study provides actionable insights for strengthening adaptive coastal governance. We underscore the urgency of prioritizing the tertiary sector and high-exposure regions in climate adaptation plans. These results contribute to the growing body of scholarship that supports climate-resilient, sector-specific, and globally relevant coastal governance strategies.