Advancing multiscale sustainable development in lake-dense regions: A dynamic management chain for ecosystem service supply–demand and ecological risks interactions

Abstract

Dynamic management of lake-dense regions based on interactions between ecosystem service supply–demand (ESSD) and ecological risk (ER) is essential for sustainable development. This study integrates the ecosystem service value supply model, a land–population–economy–society demand model, and the landscape ER assessment to develop a comprehensive ESSD–ER framework for lake-dense regions. Bivariate spatial autocorrelation and geographically and temporally weighted regression (GTWR) models are applied to reveal the spatiotemporal interaction intensity between ESSD and ER. Subsequently, an integrated ESSD–ER sustainable management framework is constructed based on a six-quadrant model and dynamic change rate index. Applying this framework to the middle reaches of the Yangtze River urban agglomerations (MRYRUA) at multiscale, the results indicate: (1) A persistent mismatch existed in the study area, where ecosystem service supply remains lower than demand, with ER rising annually. (2) High ESSD–high ER clusters showed positive interactions within lake areas. Negative interactions intensify progressively from low–high clustered nearshore areas to high–low clustered inland forested areas. (3) MRYRUA comprised six management zones: optimal balance sustainable zones, potential balance sustainable zones, imbalanced improvement transitional zones, worsening imbalance transitional zones, risk alert transitional zones, and dual crisis unsustainable zones. At the macroscale, northern regions displayed higher unsustainable categories than southern regions, showing apparent spatial heterogeneity. Risk-alert transitional zones dominated (51.61 %), primarily distributed adjacent to water bodies. At the microscale, cropland–forest interlaced zones serve as optimal balance sustainable zones. Green industrial upgrading mechanisms are recommended in dual crisis unsustainable zones in northern regions. Southern regions should maintain their advantages in optimal and potential balance sustainable zones. These findings provide scientific guidance to achieve multiscale sustainable development in lake-dense regions.