Nonlinear and weak interactions among sustainable development goals (SDGs) drive China's SDGs growth rate below expectations

Abstract

Despite substantial efforts dedicated to achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030, there remains a critical lack of focus on how the nonlinear interactions between the SDGs affect their progress. To fill this pressing knowledge gap, we conducted a comprehensive analysis of SDG interactions and progress in China, from 2000 to 2021, with a focus on assessing nonlinear interactions and their effects on compound annual growth rates of SDGs at both national and provincial scales. Our results show that unless its current trajectory improves, China will not fully achieve all SDGs by 2030, with actual growth rates of some of the goals falling short of desired targets. Crucially, nonlinear interactions among SDGs are more prevalent than linear ones, calling into question the conventional assumption of predominantly linear interactions. While linear synergies do exert the strongest positive influence on SDG progress, the unclassified interactions emerge as the most critical factor inhibiting it. Our findings emphasize the importance of adopting more tailored policy approaches that leverage beneficial nonlinear dynamics and tackle obstacles posed by isolated actions or trade-offs, thus offering valuable insights for both China and the global community in navigating the complexities of the timely achievement of the SDGs.