Settlement patterns, official statistics and geo-economic dynamics: Evidence from a LADISC approach to Italy

Abstract

Taken as pivotal in explaining settlement patterns, territorial and socioeconomic factors — such as elevation or proximity to water bodies or infrastructures — are evolving amid contemporary trends favouring urbanized areas. Urban centers, transformed over the past decades, attract younger populations because of the inherent proximity to services and infrastructure, amid challenges posed by urban living costs and housing availability. This study extends the Latitude, Altitude, Distance from the Sea, and Proximity to Major Cities (LADISC) model, integrating two additional geographic metrics to provide a refined framework for analyzing population distribution trends. Unlike traditional approaches that rely on administrative boundaries, this model applies geostatistical techniques to high-resolution census data, offering a detailed and dynamic perspective on settlement evolution in Italy. Advanced applications of official data mining with exploratory statistical techniques allow for the uncovering of a significant concentration of elderly populations within urban centers, underscoring the needed for tailored healthcare services and urban amenities. Conversely, we found that younger populations are decentralizing towards suburban areas, reflecting a sudden shift in preferences and mobility patterns. Such trends prompt a reassessment of urban planning and (sustainable) development strategies to accommodate diverse population needs. Our study further explores the impact of Covid-19 pandemic on population distribution, suggesting a potential surge in remote working and digital interactions that are most likely to reshape peri‑urban settlements. By refining the LADISC framework, this study presents an innovative methodology for handling large-scale census data, allowing for spatially explicit demographic analysis that captures population shifts more precisely than traditional methods.