Extreme wind speed estimation in thunderstorm gales utilizing dual-polarization weather radar hydrometeor classification products

Abstract

Severe thunderstorm gales are the predominant meteorological phenomena associated with convective storms. Accurately estimating the extreme wind speed of thunderstorm gales (ESTG) is crucial for both forecasting services and disaster investigations related to severe convective weather. This paper proposes a method for estimating the ESTG based on dual-polarization weather radar hydrometeors classification products (EESonHC). This method utilizes changes in hydrometeors, combines these changes with the atmospheric vertical momentum equation, and estimates the ESTG by approximating the average vertical acceleration of storm cells. Experimental tests were conducted using cases of thunderstorm gales in both strong and weak wind shear environments, demonstrating that this estimation method achieves an accuracy rate as high as 75 % for extreme thunderstorm gales exceeding 25 m/s, with an average error in estimated wind speed of approximately 0.5 m/s. The primary issues include: 1. When multiple storm cells are in close vicinity, accurately isolating the vertical motion acceleration pairs for each individual cell becomes challenging, thereby complicating wind speed estimation; 2. Overestimating ice-phase hydrometeors in HCL could lead to underestimating wind speed or make it impossible to estimate accurately.