Decoding prognosis in dengue-induced hepatitis: Model for end-stage liver disease vs albumin-bilirubin for predicting liver failure and survival.

Abstract

In this editorial, we comment on the article by Teerasarntipan et al published in a recent issue of the World Journal of Gastroenterology. Dengue infection is a major mosquito-borne disease with global significance. Dengue-induced severe hepatitis (DISH) is a rare complication though severe, as it can lead to acute liver failure (ALF) with an incidence rate between 0.7% and 2.0% and mortality rates from 47.0% to 58.8%. In this context, the identification of patients at risk of ALF could improve prognosis in DISH patients. Teerasarntipan et al retrospectively enrolled 2532 dengue patients, counting 193 DISH and 20 ALF. The authors explored the prognostic role of liver-specific scores, as the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) score, albumin-bilirubin (ALBI) score, easy (EZ)-ALBI score, and platelet-ALBI (PALBI) score. Univariate analysis identified international normalized ratio (INR), total bilirubin, albumin, and creatinine as independent laboratory factors associated with ALF, while age, gender, and liver comorbidities were not linked to in-hospital mortality. The presence of dengue shock syndrome significantly increased mortality, with an odds ratio (OR) of 28.05 (95%CI: 7.21-109.18, P < 0.001). High INR and low albumin were laboratory markers associated with death from DISH, with ORs of 5.83 (95%CI: 2.59-13.12, P < 0.001) and 0.15 (95%CI: 0.05-0.44, P < 0.001), respectively. Multivariate analysis confirmed that INR remained the only significant predictor of both ALF and death, with adjusted ORs of 19.54 (95%CI: 3.37-113.38, P < 0.001) and 3.86 (95%CI: 1.13-13.18, P = 0.031), respectively. Among prognostic models, the MELD score performed best in predicting ALF, with a very high accuracy [area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.929, 87.5% sensitivity, 89.3% specificity at a cutoff of 16], followed by the EZ-ALBI, ALBI, and PALBI scores, with AUROCs of 0.865, 0.832, and 0.797, respectively. As MELD remains the best scoring system for predicting poor outcomes in DISH-related ALF, EZ-ALBI is a valid adjunct tool that could improve medical care in these patients.